Page 65 - FY 2020-21 Revenue Outlook

Sales Tax - (Million Dollars)

650 575 500 425 350 275 200 125 50 As a change in sales tax

6.3 4.3 20 no longer adjusted with the

15

City 1-Percent Sales Tax and Local Unemployment Rate

10

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 05 growth in City sales tax slows or decreases. As a result of the great recession, the unemployment rate was at its highest level in this 40-year time series, coinciding receipts may lag three months behind changes in economic conditions, the chart above does not yet reflect a drop in receipts to mirror this change. At this time, it is too early to determine whether this rapid

Sales Tax Sales Tax 12-Mo. Moving Sum (adj) 00 Fiscal Year Ending Over time, as the local unemployment rate declines (thin line), the rate of growth of City sales tax (thick line) increases. As the unemployment rate increases, with a significant drop in sales tax revenue. As the local unemployment rate has improved to pre-recession levels, sales tax revenue has grown beyond the pre- 53

95 recession peak. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the County witnessed a jump in unemployment between February and March. *Receipts since September 2004 are adjusted to reflect the previous 1 percent sales tax rate. Receipts for April 2016 onward are

90

85

80 restoration of the 1 percent rate.
the budget.
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Unemployment Rate (%)