Page 36 - FY 2021--22 Revenue Outlook

REVENUE MONTHLY STATUS REPORT
Property Tax - Secured Receipts Recorded by County Property Tax Year
(Thousand Dollars)

MONTHLY 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
DECEMBER $527,364 $565,317 $616,508 $655,520 $655,553 $33 $655,553 $678,600
JANUARY 131,841 141,329 154,127 164,500 163,888 (612) 163,888 169,650
FEBRUARY 183,012 110,045 94,176 134,600 84,054 (50,546) 84,054 132,090
MARCH 0 0 0
APRIL 293,788 406,409 454,818 464,050 499,151 487,840
MAY 161,086 189,495 117,360 202,530 189,500 227,460
JUNE 64,402 0 0 0
JULY 38,734 20,692 9,975 25,910 21,135 24,840
AUGUST 6,922 6,551 12,935 7,860 6,800 7,870
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
TOTAL $1,342,747 1,439,838 1,524,303 1,654,970 1,620,080 1,728,350
% Change 6.7% 7.2% 5.9% 8.6% 6.3% 6.7%

MONTHLY 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
DECEMBER 527,364 $565,317 $616,508 $655,520 $655,553 $33 $655,553 $678,600
JANUARY 659,205 706,646 770,635 820,020 819,441 (579) 819,441 848,250
FEBRUARY 842,218 816,691 864,811 954,620 903,495 (51,125) 903,495 980,340
MARCH 842,218 816,691 864,811 954,620 903,495 980,340
APRIL 1,136,005 1,223,100 1,319,630 1,418,670 1,402,646 1,468,180
MAY 1,297,091 1,412,595 1,436,990 1,621,200 1,592,145 1,695,640
JUNE 1,297,091 1,412,595 1,501,392 1,621,200 1,592,145 1,695,640
JULY 1,335,825 1,433,287 1,511,367 1,647,110 1,613,280 1,720,480
AUGUST 1,342,747 1,439,838 1,524,303 1,654,970 1,620,080 1,728,350
SEPTEMBER 1,342,747 1,439,838 1,524,303 1,654,970 1,620,080 1,728,350
OCTOBER 1,342,747 1,439,838 1,524,303 1,654,970 1,620,080 1,728,350
NOVEMBER 1,342,747 1,439,838 1,524,303 1,654,970 1,620,080 1,728,350

Original Charge $1,318,410 $1,413,293 $1,541,270 $1,633,810 $1,638,881 $1,734,756
% Change 6.3% 7.2% 9.1% 6.0% 6.3% 5.9%
- Orig Charge
Adjusted Charge $1,336,477 $1,438,942 $1,552,505 $1,645,720 $1,650,171 $1,746,706
% Change 6.2% 7.7% 7.9% 6.0% 6.3% 5.9%
- Adj Charge
City Collection
Rate of Original 101.8% 101.9% 98.9% 101.3% 98.9% 99.6%
Charge
$ 896.66
Above are monthly secured receipts by County tax year, which begins in December and therefore does not align with the City fiscal year. The
budget estimate for 2020-21 assumed 6.6 percent growth in assessed value (AV) and actual receipts, which corresponded with City AV
growth for the 2020 tax year reported in the County's Annual Roll. Actual receipts have fallen below estimates with lower growth and collection
rates.

The Assessor has not provided a preliminary forecast for assessment year 2021. The estimated growth of 5.9 percent for the 2021 County tax
year is based on 2020-21 receipts-to-date, average historical growth, assumptions for low inflation adjustments as based on the CPI, and
improved collection rates with available stimulus funds.

There is significant downside risk in both 2020-21 and 2021-22 revised estimates should the collection rate decrease below assumptions.
Additionally, 2021-22 growth may be impacted by reduced valuations for commercial properties that have been adversely impacted by the
pandemic and post-pandemic market. No data is available to quantify this potential loss.

27