Page 455 - FY 2021-22 Proposed Budget

This year’s estimates and projections are based on the assumption that the
existing state and local safer-at-home orders and associated restrictions on
public activities will continue in place for most, if not all, of the remaining four
months of the fiscal year. Looking into the following year, it is assumed that
the current orders will be gradually loosened beginning this summer, and the
portions of the economy impacted by the related restrictions will begin to
recover during fiscal year 2021-22.

The City is estimated to realize General Fund revenues in the current fiscal
year of approximately $6.14 billion (excluding the $125 million transfer from
COVID 19 Federal Relief Fund, which was immediately passed through to
repay a loan from the Building and Safety Building Permit Enterprise Fund).
This is $549.1 million (8.2 percent) lower than the $6.69 billion 2020-21
Approved Budget.

Total 2021-22 General Fund revenues are projected to be $6.43 billion, an
increase of $289.4 million (4.7 percent) over 2020-21 estimates. It should be
noted that the estimate does not include discretionary one-time transfers from
the Reserve Fund or other funds identified during the budget process.

This Office based these estimates on information received from departments,
consultation with local economic experts and academics, and historical as well
as recent trends.

To the extent that the primary assumptions relative to the pandemic are not
realized, the City’s revenues in fiscal year 2021-22 would likely be significantly
lower. If, for instance, the City faces another wave of COVID-19 cases next
winter as we faced this past winter, revenues could fall another 2 percent
below the current year trend. This would represent a swing of more than $400
million from where this report projects fiscal year 2021-22 revenues.

It should also be noted that these estimates do not directly include any of the
significant emergency relief funding that has been provided by the state and
federal governments during the pandemic. The largest of these funding
packages, the CARES Act, provided more than $700M to the City at the end
of fiscal year 2019-20. This funding, as well as all of the funding provided in
the current year, was accounted for within special purpose funds created for
these programs, and has not had a direct impact on General Fund revenue.

The complete list of estimated City receipts for 2020-21 and 2021-22 is
presented in Schedule 1.

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