Page 48 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook

REVENUE MONTHLY STATUS REPORT
Property Tax - 1% (Excl. VLF and Sales Tax Replacement)
(Thousand Dollars)

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
MONTHLY ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 38,397 22,824 13,195 23,395 27,291 3,896 27,291 27,925
AUGUST 52,792 64,959 71,432 64,285 69,632 5,347 69,632 68,830
SEPTEMBE - - - - - - - -
OCTOBER - - - - - - - -
NOVEMBER 26,411 30,685 32,005 31,840 28,367 (3,473) 28,367 31,950
DECEMBER 546,452 597,115 634,148 671,135 661,642 (9,493) 661,642 692,177
JANUARY 148,312 161,368 171,887 181,740 179,258 (2,482) 179,258 186,913
FEBRUARY 104,191 90,687 83,056 129,990 95,013 (34,977) 95,013 113,720
MARCH 6,652 7,287 10,060 10,010 10,517 507 10,517 8,030
APRIL 408,605 456,724 501,894 488,310 510,521 519,610
MAY 198,927 123,950 200,404 222,410 208,158 223,783
JUNE 6,330 70,999 4,220 6,535 6,287 6,257
TOTAL $ 1,537,068 $ 1,626,598 $ 1,722,300 $ 1,829,650 $ 1,796,685 $ 1,879,195
% Change 8.9% 5.8% 5.9% 6.2% 4.3% 4.6%
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
CUMULATIVE ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 38,397 22,824 13,195 23,395 27,291 3,896 27,291 27,925
AUGUST 91,189 87,783 84,627 87,680 96,923 9,243 96,923 96,755
SEPTEMBE 91,189 87,783 84,627 87,680 96,923 9,243 96,923 96,755
OCTOBER 91,189 87,783 84,627 87,680 96,923 9,243 96,923 96,755
NOVEMBER 117,600 118,468 116,632 119,520 125,289 5,769 125,289 128,705
DECEMBER 664,052 715,583 750,780 790,655 786,931 (3,724) 786,931 820,882
JANUARY 812,364 876,951 922,667 972,395 966,189 (6,206) 966,189 1,007,795
FEBRUARY 916,555 967,638 1,005,722 1,102,385 1,061,202 (41,183) 1,061,202 1,121,515
MARCH 923,207 974,925 1,015,782 1,112,395 1,071,719 (40,676) 1,071,719 1,129,545
APRIL 1,331,811 1,431,649 1,517,676 1,600,705 1,582,240 1,649,155
MAY 1,530,738 1,555,599 1,718,080 1,823,115 1,790,398 1,872,938
JUNE 1,537,068 1,626,598 1,722,300 1,829,650 1,796,685 1,879,195

The estimates on this page represent the "base" for the property tax revenue, roughly equivalent to one percent
of the home value at the time of sale. The primary determinant of growth in City property tax is the change in City
assessed value calculated by the County Assessor. Revised growth of 6.0 percent for 2020-21 reflects the
County's estimate for percent growth reported in its 2020 annual tax roll plus other adjustments. The unusual
growth in 2018-19 in chart below corresponds to early tax payments made by property owners in response to
federal income tax deduction changes. The addition of recording miscellaneous property tax receipts starting in
2019-20 makes growth appear larger on the table above.
The estimate for 2022-23 reflects net 4.6 percent growth based on current year receipts and the unique trends of
the various components.

Property Tax - 1 Percent - 12-Month Moving Sum
(Million Dollars)
2,000
-Actual
1,800
□ Adopted Revenue
1,600 • Estimated Revenue 11----+----+--+----.-..J'lF=----+--f---+

1,400

1,200

1,000
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Fiscal Year Ending
36