Page 455 - 2020-21 Budget Summary

our previous March 1 estimate and well below the amount budgeted for the year.​ For fiscal year
2021, we now estimate a decline in projected General Fund revenues of between $194 million
and $598 million, depending on the length of the current shutdown and the speed at which the
​
economy begins to recover.

Fiscal year 2020

For the current fiscal year, the City’s adopted budget totals $10.71 billion; two-thirds of that, or $6.57
billion, consists of General Fund revenues. In early March 2020, my office projected General Fund
receipts would come in at $6.61 billion; today, we are projecting those revenues to be $6.38 billion.
Even with this revision, my office is still projecting 2.3 percent growth over last fiscal year’s General
Fund receipts.

The largest sources of the decrease this fiscal year are Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) and
Licenses, Permits, Fees and Fines, which together are reduced by $110 million, as the travel and
tourism industry has recently fallen by more than 70 percent and City office operations have been
largely closed during the crisis. Revenues reflecting economic activity, such as Business Tax and
Sales Tax, also are projected lower, but not to the same degree because both are lagging indicators
that will be impacted much more heavily in the coming year. Economic forecasts show only a slight
decline in the amount of Property Taxes, although this revenue may drop more sharply in future
years if the recession extends through the end of the calendar year and home sales and values
decrease.

Below is a table with the previous (March 1) and current estimates for some of the major sources of
revenue tracked in the forecast.

Revenue Source Previous Estimate Revised Estimate Difference

Property Tax (Total) $2.241B $2.239B $(2M)

Utility Users Tax $657M $645M $(12M)
Licenses, Permits, Fees & Fines $1.194B $1.140B $(54M)

Business Tax $664M $640M $(24M)

Sales Tax $604M $590M $(14M)

Transient Occupancy Tax $321M $260M $(61M)
Documentary Transfer Tax $220M $205M $(15M)

Parking Occupancy Tax $123M $100M $(23M)

Parking Fines $135M $110M $(25M)

Other Revenues $224M $224M —
Total General Fund $6.613B $6.382B $(231M)

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