Page 456 - 2020-21 Budget Summary

Fiscal year 2021

My office is now presenting revenue projections for fiscal year 2021 as a range of possibilities with
higher, middle and lower values attributed to each revenue stream. We are using ranges because
the economic situation is uncertain and could remain so for months. It is unclear exactly when and
how our economy will rebound and return to a state of normalcy. All estimates depend on what
happens in the future — the higher values should not be considered a “best case” scenario and the
lower values should not be considered a “worst case” scenario — these simply reflect estimates
based on varying assumptions of the severity of the recession.

We currently project that General Fund receipts in 2021 will come in somewhere within the range of
$6.22 billion and $6.62 billion, between $194 million and $598 million less than the $6.82 billion
originally projected. Unless travel and business activity rebounds considerably, we will experience
another slow year for TOT and significant drops in Business Tax, Sales Tax, and Parking Tax —
roughly similar to what was experienced during the Great Recession from 2008 to 2010. Business
Tax receipts will likely drop between eight and 12 percent, bringing in $55 million to $85 million less
than projected. If any “tax holidays” are implemented, the actual receipts will be even lower.

Difference
(Previous
Previous Higher Middle Lower Revision to
Revenue Estimate Revision Revision Revision Middle
Revision)

Property Tax $2.397B $2.397B $2.383B $2.338B $(14M)
(Total)

Utility Users Tax $645M $634M $622M $609M $(23M)

Licenses, Permits, $1.241B $1.25B $1.2B $1.1B $(41M)
Fees and Fines

Business Tax $690M $635M $620M $605M $(70M)
Sales Tax $627M $590M $575M $560M $(52M)

Transient $325M $275M $262M $245M $(63M)
Occupancy Tax

Documentary $224M $200M $180M $160M $(44M)
Transfer Tax
Parking Occupancy $127M $105M $100M $95M $(27M)
Tax
Parking Fines $135M $130M $120M $100M $(15M)

Other Revenues $179M $179M $179M $179M —

Total General $6.815B $6.621B $6.467B $6.217B $(348M)
Fund

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