Page 26 - FY 2020-21 Revenue Outlook

General Fund Revenue Outlook
Fiscal Years 2019-20 through 2024-25
General Assumptions

Parking Occupancy Current year parking occupancy tax have been revised downward to reflect actual
Tax receipts and the projected drop in last quarter receipts from the impact of the
pandemic, and 2020-21 receipts are estimated to remain flat. The potential liability
for the refunding of pre-paid parking occupancy taxes is not reflected in the
estimate.
Receipts are expected to recover in 2021-22 and outgoing years assume average
growth.
Franchise Income Revised franchise revenue in 2019-20 has been increased to reflect higher receipts
in natural gas and solid waste collection franchises.
2020-21 official police garage receipts, which were reduced in 2019-20 to reflect
reduced parking enforcement efforts are increased, as are receipts from pipeline
franchise agreements. Taxicab franchise revenue assumes zero receipts with the
expiration of the franchise ordinance in June 2020. Revenues for other franchise
categories are estimated to remain flat for 2020-21.
Receipts are assumed to remain constant for outgoing years.
Special Parking The 2019-20 transfer has been reduced by $26 million, of which $10 million
Revenue represents a reduction of the base $23.5 million transfer amount. Approximately
$18.3 million of the reduction is attributed to lower parking meter and parking lot
receipts during the pandemic. One-time revenue includes anticipated revenue tied
to the Mangrove property.
Additional one-time receipts of $4.2 million is assumed for 2020-21 which assumes
no additional impact from the pandemic.
Subsequent years assume the base transfer amount of $23.5 million.
Interest Earnings The interest earnings estimate for 2019-20 and 2020-21 were based on estimates
provided by the Office of Finance in March. Subsequent years assume average
growth in receipts.
Grant Receipts Grant revenue is variable. Estimates for 2019-20 and 2020-21 are provided by the
various departments receiving grant funds. An additional $4.8 million in one-time
disaster assistance grant and interest earnings are assumed in the 2019-20 revised
estimate from past wildfire, storm and Northridge earthquake reimbursements. No
Federal or State grant aid in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is included in the
General Fund revenue estimate.
Fiscal year 2021-22 onward assumes no growth.
Tobacco Settlement Growth estimates for 2019-20 and 2020-21 are based on the 2018-19 remittance.
Fiscal year 2021-22 onward assumes no growth.
Residential Changes in the residential development tax are correlated with building permit
Development Taxes activity. The estimate for 2019-20 reflects receipts-to-date and assumes permits for
new residential construction will decline in the closing months as a result of the
pandemic and projected recession. Based on the decline seen during the 2000
dotcom recession, the low permit activity is expected to remain low through
2020-21. Receipts are assumed to recover in 2021-22 and are forecasted for
average receipts thereafter.
State Motor Vehicle This revenue transfer was eliminated by the State in fiscal year 2010-11. However, a
License Fees special apportionment ranging from $1.6 million to $2.5 million annually will continue.
Fiscal year 2019-20 reflects actual receipts and 2020-21 onward assumes no
growth.

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