Page 58 - FY 2021--22 Revenue Outlook

Sales Tax - (Million Dollars)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 rate was at its With the onset of the

18.8 11.5 4.5 21 triple-flip.

16

11
12.8

4.6 06

Sales Tax Receipts 12-Mo. Moving Sum (adj. for Triple-Flip)
Sales Tax City 1-Percent Sales Tax and Local Unemployment Rate 01 Fiscal Year Ending Sales tax revenue is an economically sensitive revenue that echoes changes in employment. In the chart above, as the unemployment rate increases during economic downturns, growth in City sales tax revenue slows or declines. Prior to the pandemic, the unemployment highest level (12.8 percent) during the Great Recession in this 40-year time series, which coincided with a significan

96 the local unemployment rate dropped to its historically low rate of 4.5 percent, sales tax revenue experienced steady growth. (March 2021 UCLA Anderson Forecast). Local unemployment tends to exceed that of the State. 25 percent. Receipts for April 2016 onward are no longer adjusted with the restoration of the 1 percent rate with the end of the

Increasing Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 91 86

81

20 17 14 11 8 Unemployment Rate (%) 5 2