Page 71 - FY 2021--22 Revenue Outlook

REVENUE MONTHLY STATUS REPORT
Documentary Transfer Tax - Real Property Transfers
(Thousand Dollars)

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
MONTHLY ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 18,161 17,300 17,864 14,790 9,945 (4,845) 9,945 18,980
AUGUST 20,507 22,206 24,112 18,905 18,505 (400) 18,505 22,405
SEPTEMBER 19,072 19,994 19,916 19,045 17,140 (1,905) 17,140 19,620
OCTOBER 15,532 15,432 19,991 16,070 20,968 4,898 20,968 17,435
NOVEMBER 17,211 16,886 19,552 17,670 19,677 2,007 19,677 18,480
DECEMBER 16,619 16,569 15,601 17,620 18,283 663 18,283 17,060
JANUARY 17,056 17,296 20,526 19,855 28,193 8,338 28,193 19,865
FEBRUARY 13,288 12,761 15,717 14,040 15,760 1,720 15,760 13,855
MARCH 14,003 13,861 15,233 15,775 16,443 668 16,443 13,620
APRIL 17,759 13,561 15,791 20,255 19,500 19,230
MAY 16,902 17,191 9,909 20,250 15,000 17,835
JUNE 18,736 19,165 8,202 18,440 17,200 18,230
TOTAL $ 204,846 $ 202,224 $ 202,413 $ 212,715 $ 216,615 $ 216,615
% Change -2.0% -1.3% 0.1% 5.1% 7.0% 0.0%
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
CUMULATIVE ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 18,161 17,300 17,864 14,790 9,945 (4,845) 9,945 18,980
AUGUST 38,668 39,506 41,976 33,695 28,450 (5,245) 28,450 41,385
SEPTEMBER 57,740 59,500 61,892 52,740 45,590 (7,150) 45,590 61,005
OCTOBER 73,272 74,933 81,883 68,810 66,558 (2,252) 66,558 78,440
NOVEMBER 90,483 91,819 101,435 86,480 86,235 (245) 86,235 96,920
DECEMBER 107,102 108,388 117,036 104,100 104,518 418 104,518 113,980
JANUARY 124,158 125,684 137,562 123,955 132,711 8,756 132,711 133,845
FEBRUARY 137,446 138,445 153,279 137,995 148,471 10,476 148,471 147,700
MARCH 151,449 152,306 168,512 153,770 164,915 11,145 164,915 161,320
APRIL 169,209 165,868 184,303 174,025 184,415 180,550
MAY 186,110 183,059 194,212 194,275 199,415 198,385
JUNE 204,846 202,224 202,413 212,715 216,615 216,615

The documentary transfer tax rate is $2.25 per each $500 of sales price. This tax is the most volatile General
Fund revenue source as revenue growth (or decline) is magnified when home prices and sales volume move
together. Since the Great Recession, price appreciation has been largely a factor of low sales inventory. This
trend was amplified during the pandemic with both a drop in inventory and in interest rates. Both revenue per
deed (proxy for price) and deeds recorded (proxy for sales) which dropped at the start of the pandemic, are
trending towards pre-pandemic levels.
The proposed budget estimates assume modest, continuing growth in both metrics, with the increase in interest
rates slowing the price appreciation.

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