Page 69 - FY 2021--22 Revenue Outlook

REVENUE MONTHLY STATUS REPORT
Documentary Transfer Tax - All Sources
(Thousand Dollars)

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
MONTHLY ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 18,172 17,591 17,864 15,050 9,945 (5,105) 9,945 19,254
AUGUST 20,507 22,705 25,609 19,165 18,505 (660) 18,505 22,679
SEPTEMBER 19,675 19,996 19,916 19,305 17,143 (2,162) 17,143 19,895
OCTOBER 15,584 15,512 20,399 16,330 20,968 4,638 20,968 17,709
NOVEMBER 18,481 18,534 20,231 17,930 19,744 1,814 19,744 18,754
DECEMBER 16,708 16,932 15,612 17,880 18,409 529 18,409 17,335
JANUARY 17,056 17,296 20,940 20,115 31,072 10,957 31,072 20,139
FEBRUARY 13,466 13,770 15,720 14,300 15,760 1,460 15,760 14,129
MARCH 14,343 13,861 15,278 16,035 16,570 535 16,570 13,895
APRIL 18,186 13,656 15,791 20,515 19,529 19,504
MAY 16,902 17,191 9,911 20,510 15,030 18,109
JUNE 18,736 19,165 8,202 18,700 17,230 18,505
TOTAL $ 207,815 $ 206,211 $ 205,473 $ 215,835 $ 219,905 $ 219,905
% Change -1.1% -0.8% -0.4% 5.0% 7.0% 0.0%
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
CUMULATIVE ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 18,172 17,591 17,864 15,050 9,945 (5,105) 9,945 19,254
AUGUST 38,679 40,297 43,473 34,215 28,450 (5,765) 28,450 41,933
SEPTEMBER 58,353 60,293 63,389 53,520 45,593 (7,927) 45,593 61,828
OCTOBER 73,937 75,805 83,788 69,850 66,561 (3,289) 66,561 79,537
NOVEMBER 92,418 94,339 104,019 87,780 86,305 (1,475) 86,305 98,291
DECEMBER 109,126 111,271 119,631 105,660 104,714 (946) 104,714 115,625
JANUARY 126,182 128,568 140,571 125,775 135,786 10,011 135,786 135,764
FEBRUARY 139,648 142,337 156,291 140,075 151,546 11,471 151,546 149,893
MARCH 153,992 156,199 171,569 156,110 168,116 12,006 168,116 163,788
APRIL 172,177 169,855 187,360 176,625 187,645 183,292
MAY 189,079 187,046 197,272 197,135 202,675 201,401
JUNE 207,815 206,211 205,473 215,835 219,905 219,905

The documentary transfer tax is assessed at the time of a property's sale. Additional revenue is generated when
controlling interest in a legal entity holding real property is transferred. This tax is the most volatile General Fund
revenue source as revenue growth (or decline) is magnified when home prices and sales volume move together.
This account recorded more than $217 million in 2005-06 at the peak of the real estate bubble. Three years later
in 2008-09, revenue declined to under $84 million. Monthly receipts for May through July 2020 reflect the drop in
sales activity that immediately followed the initial pandemic-driven stay-at-home order. Receipts have since
recovered.
The 2019-20 estimate has been increased to reflect the unusually high real property and legal entity transfer
proceeds received in January. After adjusting for January receipts, the 2020-21 estimate reflects modest growth
in pricing and sales volume.

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