Page 17 - FY 2020-21 Revenue Outlook

the current Safer at Home orders and require the closure of nonessential
businesses. Decreased revenue is also assumed for utility users taxes which
includes the economy-driven decline in the electricity users tax; the reduction to
the gas users tax base with the full implementation of the taxpayer settlement
agreement; and the continuing decline in communication users taxes reflecting
consumer market trends. Lesser recession risk is assumed for the property and
documentary transfer taxes, as home values are assumed to remain stable and
sales volume and price appreciation has been restrained for the past two years.
Combined, growth of these seven revenues are assumed to be less than one
percent in 2020-21, which align with the lower growth (and declines) in these
receipts seen during the 2000 dotcom bust and the first year of the Great
Recession.

Estimates for Federal and State grant assistance offered in response to the
COVID-19 pandemic are not included in the General Fund revenue estimate.

Fiscal Year 2020-21 Growth Summary for Economy Sensitive Taxes
Above Average Average Growth Below Average Decline
 Property  Documentary Transfer  Business
 Property-CRA  Parking Occupancy
 Sales
 Transient Occupancy
 UUT-Communication
 UUT-Gas
 UUT-Electric
Estimated growth compared to 10-year averaged growth. Growth does not include the impact of
delayed 2019-20 receipts.

Potential concerns that may adversely impact 2020-21 revenue projections
include:

 The COVID-19 pandemic remains a physical and economic threat until
there is widespread availability of testing, vaccinations, and native
immunity in the community. With vaccinations not anticipated for another
18 months, the City will need to rely on social distancing and other
response efforts to manage and contain its spread. The current Safer at
Home order is projected to end in May, and the estimated receipts reflect
this assumption. An extended order or a subsequent one later in 2020-21
is not assumed. The recession assumptions for economy sensitive
revenues are also based on a single nonessential business closure event.
Tax and department receipts also assumes the City is able to safely return
to full service delivery while the pandemic is ongoing
 The absence of a preliminary growth forecast for property tax from the
County Assessor requires that growth estimates be based on historical
receipts, current trends and the limited information that is available from
the County. Growth in secured receipts reflect similar growth as in the
current tax year. Growth in supplemental and unsecured receipts, which

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