Page 19 - FY 2020-21 Revenue Outlook

although receipts are expected to be below 2018-19 levels. The revenue
is at highest risk if the pandemic’s impact to tourism continues even as
social distancing measures end or if a subsequent Safer at Home order is
warranted. Additionally, receipts for short-term rentals are reduced with
full-year implementation of the City’s home-sharing ordinance.
 Parking occupancy assumes the same decline and bears the same risks
as the transient occupancy tax. Additionally, there is potential liability for
the refunding of pre-paid parking occupancy taxes paid on behalf of
season-ticket holders if sporting and entertainment seasons are cancelled.
 The documentary transfer tax is most volatile when sales volume and
price move together. The current year estimate assumes that pricing and
sales volume hold steady, as the predicted recession is not being driven
by the housing market. Should pandemic-related layoffs result in
permanent job loss, there is downside risk to this revenue source as well.

The following two graphs provide a perspective on the economy and the City’s
General Fund taxes. Revised, proposed, and forecasted growth assumptions for
2019-20 through 2024-25 follow. The balance of this book provides detail on
each General Fund revenue.

9