Page 19 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook
P. 19
Gross Domestic Product
Actual and projected percent change in real GDP by quarterly, annualized rate
Survey Conducted by Wall Street Journal (April 2022)
• Projected GDP Growth
Actual GDP Growth
FY 18-19 FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23
40
33.8
30
20
10 6.3 6.7 6.9
3.1 3.4 2.4 3.2 2.8 4.5 3.0
1.9 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.2 2.8 2.6 2.2
0
Percent Change -10 -5.1
-20
-30
-31.2
-40
18-Q1 18-Q2 18-Q3 18-Q4 19-Q1 19-Q2 19-Q3 19-Q4 20-Q1 20-Q2 20-Q3 20-Q4 21-Q1 21-Q2 21-Q3 21-Q4 22-Q1 22-Q2 22-Q3 22-Q4 2023
Calendar Year Quarter
The effect of the change in gross domestic product (GDP) can be seen in the City's receipts as soon as the following quarter. Since the end of the
third quarter of 2009 GDP growth has been positive, except for single quarters of negative growth in 2011 and 2014. The pandemic's impact to
GDP marks the first recession after the Great Recession, when GDP dropped 15.9 percent over four quarters and took another six to recover the
loss. In contrast, the sharp 36.3 percent drop for the first two quarters of 2020 that coincided with the start of the pandemic were offset by growth
in the two quarters that followed. While the post-pandemic recovery has been stronger than that following the Great Recession, forecasted
quarterly growth most applicable to the 2022-23 fiscal year is lower. Surveyed economists have reduced forecasted growth and report an
increased risk of recession as a result of increasing inflationary pressures and predicted rate increases.
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