Page 19 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook
P. 19

Gross Domestic Product

                                           Actual and projected percent change in real GDP by quarterly, annualized rate
                                                           Survey Conducted by Wall Street Journal (April 2022)

                                                   •                                              Projected GDP Growth
                                                     Actual GDP Growth
                                   FY 18-19               FY 19-20               FY 20-21               FY 21-22               FY 22-23
                 40
                                                                                 33.8
                 30


                 20


                 10                                                                          6.3  6.7         6.9
                        3.1   3.4              2.4   3.2  2.8                          4.5                               3.0
                                   1.9   0.9                    1.9                                     2.3        1.2         2.8  2.6   2.2
                   0
                Percent Change  -10                                  -5.1





                 -20


                 -30
                                                                           -31.2
                 -40
                          18-Q1  18-Q2  18-Q3  18-Q4  19-Q1  19-Q2  19-Q3  19-Q4  20-Q1  20-Q2  20-Q3  20-Q4  21-Q1  21-Q2  21-Q3  21-Q4  22-Q1  22-Q2  22-Q3  22-Q4  2023




                                                                     Calendar Year Quarter
                The effect of the change in gross domestic product (GDP) can be seen in the City's receipts as soon as the following quarter. Since the end of the
                third quarter of 2009 GDP growth has been positive, except for single quarters of negative growth in 2011 and 2014. The pandemic's impact to
                GDP marks the first recession after the Great Recession, when GDP dropped 15.9 percent over four quarters and took another six to recover the
                loss.  In contrast, the sharp 36.3 percent drop for the first two quarters of 2020 that coincided with the start of the pandemic were offset by growth
                in the two quarters that followed. While the post-pandemic recovery has been stronger than that following the Great Recession, forecasted
                quarterly growth most applicable to the 2022-23 fiscal year is lower. Surveyed economists have reduced forecasted growth and report an
                increased risk of recession as a result of increasing inflationary pressures and predicted rate increases.



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