Page 24 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook

General Fund Revenue Outlook
Fiscal Years 2021-22 through 2026-27

General Assumptions
Power Revenue The Power Revenue transfer amount for 2021-22 has been reduced to reflect
Transfer adjustments made for actual 2020-21 power system revenue. The transfer for
2022-23 is based on the estimate included in the proposed budget for the
Department of Water and Power (DWP), which is derived from assumptions for
estimated 2021-22 Power System revenue. The final transfer amount may be
adjusted to conform to actual 2021-22 power system revenue in accordance with
audited financial statements. Outgoing years assume an average of amounts
transferred since a transfer limit was established.
Documentary Documentary transfer tax revenue is volatile and can have large swings when
Transfer Taxes home sales volume and prices move together. Revenue for 2021-22 has been
increased to reflect the impact of accelerated price appreciation and the
increasing sales that followed initial pandemic closures. 2022-23 revenue is
based on industry forecasts for slowing price growth and lower sales activity,
resulting in a negligible drop in receipts. Outgoing years assumes historical
growth.
Parking Fines The parking fine estimates for 2021-22, 2022-23 and onward are based on
increasing receipts seen with the end of pandemic-driven closures and business
restrictions. Receipts are assumed to return to, and remain at, 2018-19 total
revenue.
Parking Occupancy High growth in parking occupancy tax from 2021-22 through 2024-25 is assumed,
Tax reflecting a return to pre-pandemic levels following an extended period of
business and event closures and restrictions. 2025-26 and 2026-27 assume
historical growth.
Franchise Income Revised franchise revenue in 2021-22 has been increased to reflect the
continued collection of taxicab franchise revenue and higher growth for solid
waste, natural gas, and official police garage (OPG) franchises.
2022-23 revenue assumes increased revenue from the new natural gas franchise
agreement, with full-year receipts anticipated in 2023-24. All other receipts are
assumed to remain flat in the outgoing years.
Special Parking Due to the pandemic’s impact on parking revenues, the 2022-23 estimate
Revenue assumes a smaller surplus available for transfer. 2022-23 includes $6.9 million in
revenue above the base transfer amount of $23.5 million. Subsequent years
assume the base transfer amount.
Interest Earnings The interest earnings estimates for 2021-22 and 2022-23 were provided by the
Office of Finance in April, reflecting its current assumptions for interest earnings
with anticipated rate hikes. Subsequent years assume increased earnings in line
with prior-year growth.
Grant Receipts Grant revenue is variable. Estimates for 2021-22 and 2022-23 ongoing grant
receipts are provided by the various departments receiving grant funds, with
average growth assumed for outgoing years. Additional receipts from FEMA for
reimbursement of pandemic-response costs are assumed through 2025-26.
Tobacco Settlement Estimates for 2021-22 and 2022-23 are based on the 2020-21 remittance. No
change is assumed for outgoing years.
Residential Changes in the residential development tax are correlated with building permit
Development Taxes activity. The estimate for 2021-22 is based on receipts-to-date. 2022-23 revenue
is based on average annual revenue, and permitting activity is assumed to
remain stable in outgoing years.

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