Page 23 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook

General Fund Revenue Outlook
Fiscal Years 2021-22 through 2026-27

General Assumptions
Economic Growth This forecast is based on long-term historical experience, with total City revenue
growth for outgoing years estimated between 1.9 and 3.4 percent. Unless
otherwise noted, individual revenue sources reflect continuing growth in fiscal
years 2023-24 through 2026-27 based on historical average receipts.
Property Tax Fiscal year 2021-22 revised receipts reflect the County Assessor’s reported
growth in assessed value of 4.0 percent for the City, offset by refunds and other
adjustments. The County Assessor has not provided a preliminary estimate for
property tax growth for 2022-23. Higher assessed value growth of 4.8 percent
assumes the full two percent inflationary adjustment to secured receipts; stable
unsecured and supplementary receipts; flat refund activity; and decreasing
redemptions. 2023-24 and outgoing years assume growth based on historical
receipts.
Redirection of ex- This revenue category was first received in June 2012. Growth is irregular due in
CRA Tax Increment part to one-time miscellaneous revenues that may occur in any given year. The
Monies June 2022 payment is based on the County’s April estimate. The estimate for
2022-23 reflects the adopted payment schedule (ROPS) and assumptions based
on prior disbursements. Additional one-time miscellaneous revenue from surplus
property sales are included in the 2022-23 estimate.
Growth in subsequent fiscal years align with property tax growth assumptions.
Utility Users Tax Electricity users tax (EUT) revenue for 2021-22 and 2022-23 are provided by the
 Electricity Users Tax Department of Water and Power (DWP) and are based on the 2021 load forecast
updated to reflect actual receipts. Outgoing years assume average growth.
 Gas Users Tax
Natural gas users tax revenue for 2021-22 reflects receipts-to-date and the
 Communication second full year of a three-year rate reduction stemming from a class-action
Users Tax lawsuit settlement. No decline or growth from current peak pricing is assumed for
outgoing years.
Communication users tax (CUT) revenue continues to decline with strategic
wireless plan pricing and decreased landline use. 2021-22 receipts have been
higher than plan which may partly be attributable to increasing reliance on
communication technology during the pandemic. 2022-23 revenue and outgoing
years assume that drop in CUT receipts slows.
Departmental 2021-22 revenue has been reduced primarily to reflect lower reimbursements
receipts from special funds and proprietary departments. Related costs reimbursements
for 2021-22 and 2022-23 are based on updated CAP rates and vacancy, salary
and service level assumptions. 2023-24 assumes higher growth to return to pre-
pandemic trend in receipts with growth slowing 3.0 percent in outgoing years.
Sales Tax Sales tax revenue for 2021-22, 2022-23 and onward reflect the recovery and the
subsequent return to average growth in receipts,
Business Tax Business tax revenue for 2021-22, 2022-23 and onward reflect the recovery and
the subsequent return to average growth in receipts from non-cannabis activity.
2021-22 growth in receipts from cannabis activity has been negligible. 2022-23
receipts onward assume higher but decreasing growth.
Transient High growth in transient occupancy tax (TOT) revenue from hotels and short-term
Occupancy Tax rentals from 2021-22 through 2023-24 are based on tourism industry forecasts
that reflect a return to pre-pandemic growth. 2026-27 will be the first year TOT
receipts surpass 2018-19 revenue.

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