Page 68 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook

REVENUE MONTHLY STATUS REPORT
Documentary Transfer Tax - All Sources
(Thousand Dollars)

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
MONTHLY ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 17,591 17,864 9,945 19,873 22,817 2,944 22,817 26,140
AUGUST 22,705 25,609 18,505 23,408 29,520 6,113 29,520 30,810
SEPTEMBE 19,996 19,916 17,143 20,538 24,407 3,870 24,407 27,020
OCTOBER 15,512 20,399 20,968 18,283 23,293 5,010 23,293 24,040
NOVEMBER 18,534 20,231 19,744 19,363 24,740 5,378 24,740 25,460
DECEMBER 16,932 15,612 18,409 17,893 24,580 6,688 24,580 23,530
JANUARY 17,296 20,940 31,072 20,788 31,950 11,162 31,950 27,340
FEBRUARY 13,770 15,720 15,760 14,588 23,619 9,031 23,619 19,170
MARCH 13,861 15,278 16,570 14,348 21,194 6,847 21,346 18,850
APRIL 13,656 15,791 23,761 20,133 26,589 26,480
MAY 17,191 9,911 25,184 18,693 24,689 24,580
JUNE 19,165 8,202 18,861 19,103 25,291 25,120
TOTAL $ 206,211 $ 205,473 $ 235,922 $ 227,005 $ 302,840 $ 298,540
% Change -0.8% -0.4% 14.8% -3.8% 28.4% -1.4%
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
CUMULATIVE ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 17,591 17,864 9,945 19,873 22,817 2,944 22,817 26,140
AUGUST 40,297 43,473 28,450 43,280 52,337 9,057 52,337 56,950
SEPTEMBE 60,293 63,389 45,593 63,818 76,744 12,927 76,744 83,970
OCTOBER 75,805 83,788 66,561 82,100 100,037 17,937 100,037 108,010
NOVEMBER 94,339 104,019 86,305 101,463 124,777 23,314 124,777 133,470
DECEMBER 111,271 119,631 104,714 119,355 149,357 30,002 149,357 157,000
JANUARY 128,568 140,571 135,786 140,143 181,307 41,164 181,307 184,340
FEBRUARY 142,337 156,291 151,546 154,730 204,925 50,195 204,925 203,510
MARCH 156,199 171,569 168,116 169,078 226,120 57,042 226,271 222,360
APRIL 169,855 187,360 191,877 189,210 252,860 248,840
MAY 187,046 197,272 217,061 207,903 277,549 273,420
JUNE 206,211 205,473 235,922 227,005 302,840 298,540

The documentary transfer tax is assessed at the time of a property's sale. Additional revenue is generated when
controlling interest in a legal entity holding real property is transferred. This tax is the most volatile General Fund
revenue source as revenue growth (or decline) is magnified when home prices and sales volume move together.
This account recorded more than $217 million in 2005-06 at the peak of the real estate bubble. Three years later
in 2008-09, revenue declined to under $84 million. Monthly receipts for May through July 2020 reflect the drop in
sales activity that immediately followed the initial pandemic-driven stay-at-home order. Receipts have since
recovered.
Revised 2021-22 revenue reflects the trend in current receipts. The 2022-23 estimate reflects growth in home
prices and decline in sales in accordance with industry estimates for California and the local region.

Documentary Transfer Tax - 12-Month Moving Sum
(Million Dollars)
..
- -- 298.5
325 302.8
- -
300 I I ~
,,./ ""
275 " _r zg-8-:-2- 2-~4 .9
250 ;: ;-
225 - ..., -
200 " -- ·----------------- - ~ --- ---~-"I ~ - I
---- ,---- - -----'=---"'-I
175 /~,- 1
150
~
125 §./ I -Actual
100 -----Actual less Legal Transfers
75 F • Estimate
50 0 Estimate less Legal Transfers
25 I
0 F
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Fiscal Year Ending
56