Page 70 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook

REVENUE MONTHLY STATUS REPORT
Documentary Transfer Tax - Real Property Transfers
(Thousand Dollars)

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
MONTHLY ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 17,300 17,864 9,945 19,580 22,736 3,156 22,736 25,840
AUGUST 22,206 24,112 18,505 23,115 29,422 6,307 29,422 30,510
SEPTEMBE 19,994 19,916 17,140 20,245 24,407 4,162 24,407 26,720
OCTOBER 15,432 19,991 20,968 17,990 22,254 4,264 22,254 23,740
NOVEMBER 16,886 19,552 19,677 19,070 24,266 5,196 24,266 25,160
DECEMBER 16,569 15,601 18,283 17,600 24,575 6,975 24,575 23,230
JANUARY 17,296 20,526 28,193 20,495 31,933 11,438 31,933 27,040
FEBRUARY 12,761 15,717 15,760 14,295 21,120 6,825 21,120 18,870
MARCH 13,861 15,233 16,443 14,055 21,033 6,978 21,185 18,550
APRIL 13,561 15,791 23,456 19,840 26,500 26,180
MAY 17,191 9,909 25,183 18,400 24,600 24,280
JUNE 19,165 8,202 18,856 18,810 25,203 24,820
TOTAL $ 202,224 $ 202,413 $ 232,410 $ 223,495 $ 298,200 $ 294,940
% Change -1.3% 0.1% 14.8% -3.8% 28.3% -1.1%
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
CUMULATIVE ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 17,300 17,864 9,945 19,580 22,736 3,156 22,736 25,840
AUGUST 39,506 41,976 28,450 42,695 52,157 9,462 52,157 56,350
SEPTEMBE 59,500 61,892 45,590 62,940 76,565 13,625 76,565 83,070
OCTOBER 74,933 81,883 66,558 80,930 98,818 17,888 98,818 106,810
NOVEMBER 91,819 101,435 86,235 100,000 123,084 23,084 123,084 131,970
DECEMBER 108,388 117,036 104,518 117,600 147,659 30,059 147,659 155,200
JANUARY 125,684 137,562 132,711 138,095 179,592 41,497 179,592 182,240
FEBRUARY 138,445 153,279 148,471 152,390 200,712 48,322 200,712 201,110
MARCH 152,306 168,512 164,915 166,445 221,745 55,300 221,897 219,660
APRIL 165,868 184,303 188,371 186,285 248,397 245,840
MAY 183,059 194,212 213,554 204,685 272,997 270,120
JUNE 202,224 202,413 232,410 223,495 298,200 294,940

The documentary transfer tax rate is $2.25 per each $500 of sales price. This tax is the most volatile General
Fund revenue source as revenue growth (or decline) is magnified when home prices and sales volume move
together. Since the Great Recession, price appreciation has been largely a factor of low sales inventory. This
trend was amplified during the pandemic with both a drop in inventory and in interest rates. Both revenue per
deed (proxy for price) and deeds recorded (proxy for sales) which dropped at the start of the pandemic, are
trending towards pre-pandemic levels.
The proposed budget assumes modest, continuing growth in home prices and a decline in sales. There are risks
to the 2022-23 estimates as mortgage rates increase.

City Revenue Per Recorded Deed* vs Deeds
Recorded 12-Month Moving Average
(Dollars/Deed, Thousand Deeds)
9,000 ---------------------~ 90
8,000 80 - Dollars/Deed
- Left Scale
7,000 70
6,000 ---.--+--+---+---+--+----+----+--------+ ~ --------+-=----+------+--4~ 60 • Dollars/Deed
- Left Scale
5,000 ---+--+--+---+---+---+ ,:,,, ....... ~+------+--+----+----+--+---+--+~ 50
. 39.3 -----1000 Deeds-
4,000 Right Scale
,-------------------\~_,/-~-o-;-;~, :~
3,000
o 1000 Deeds -
2,000 --~----~----~----~----- 20 Right Scale
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Fiscal Year Ending
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