Page 66 - FY 2022-23 Revenue Outlook

REVENUE MONTHLY STATUS REPORT
Utility Users Tax - Gas Users Tax
(Thousand Dollars)

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
MONTHLY ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 5,198 5,835 4,712 4,710 5,797 1,087 5,809 6,360
AUGUST 4,631 4,623 4,560 4,560 89,226 84,666 5,156 5,600
SEPTEMBE 4,540 4,250 4,169 4,170 (84,727) (88,897) 4,467 5,150
OCTOBER 5,212 4,179 3,927 3,930 18 (3,912) 4,809 5,230
NOVEMBER 4,929 4,533 4,341 4,340 5,396 1,056 5,460 5,410
DECEMBER 5,252 5,163 5,667 5,670 5,493 (177) 6,989 6,410
JANUARY 8,060 8,254 8,020 8,030 7,008 (1,022) 9,541 9,290
FEBRUARY 11,628 11,127 9,457 9,440 14,035 4,595 13,386 12,220
MARCH 11,074 9,612 9,483 9,480 11,208 1,728 11,208 11,210
APRIL 10,361 7,677 8,366 8,370 9,370 9,370
MAY 366 3,824 4,331 5,920 6,190 6,190
JUNE 5,782 4,760 5,720 5,480 5,616 5,560
TOTAL $ 77,035 $ 73,837 $ 72,752 $ 74,100 $ 88,000 $ 88,000
% Change 13.2% -4.2% -1.5% 1.9% 21.0% 0.0%
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
CUMULATIVE ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL BUDGET ACTUAL VARIANCE REVISED PROPOSED
JULY $ 5,198 5,835 4,712 4,710 5,797 1,087 5,809 6,360
AUGUST 9,830 10,459 9,272 9,270 95,023 85,753 10,965 11,960
SEPTEMBE 14,370 14,708 13,441 13,440 10,296 (3,144) 15,433 17,110
OCTOBER 19,582 18,888 17,367 17,370 10,313 (7,057) 20,241 22,340
NOVEMBER 24,511 23,421 21,708 21,710 15,709 (6,001) 25,701 27,750
DECEMBER 29,764 28,584 27,375 27,380 21,202 (6,178) 32,690 34,160
JANUARY 37,824 36,838 35,395 35,410 28,210 (7,200) 42,231 43,450
FEBRUARY 49,452 47,965 44,852 44,850 42,245 (2,605) 55,616 55,670
MARCH 60,526 57,577 54,335 54,330 53,453 (877) 66,824 66,880
APRIL 70,887 65,254 62,701 62,700 76,194 76,250
MAY 71,253 69,077 67,032 68,620 82,384 82,440
JUNE 77,035 73,837 72,752 74,100 88,000 88,000

Revenue from the gas users tax is a factor of price and consumption. Prices have dropped significantly in recent
years and are subject to volatility. City receipts, which have historically followed the natural gas prices, have
diverged during peaks in supply and demand such as during the Aliso Canyon gas leak and the colder winters.
Remittances for 2018-19 in the table above reflect the reduced May payment reflecting the California Climate
Credit's credit impact on gas utility user bills.
The 2021-22 estimate assumed a decline from the previous year from the second full year impact of a legal
settlement that will reduce the tax rate for three years. This decline has been offset by the current trend in
increasing natural gas prices. The 2021-22 and 2022-23 revised and proposed estimates are based on current
receipts, the increase in actual prices, and stable futures.

Gas Users Tax -12-Month Moving Sum
6-mo. shift actual prices and 3-mo. shift future prices
(Million Dollars, $/MMBtu)
120 r---,--,---~--;:::========================:-~-~---r-"T""---,Y- 1.4
-Actual - Left Scale
110 •---+---H--+-----+--1 □ Adopted Revenue - Left Scale i----<--+--+----+---+1- 1 ·2
100 • Estimated Revenue - Left Scale i----<--+--+-----+---+1- 1.0
- NG Price - Right Scale
90 .,.__-+-----+---~~- 0.8
• • • • NG Forecast - Right Scale
80

70 1---+---H l · m,nl<'!'I..:.~ ----- H---+---- -= ~ --+I- 0.4
60 1------1----j------l----j------j .Y----t---+-----+-Xt \,-'---!---1----+---''--l<c f-'-1--+-----tl- 0.2
50 -------------------------------------- 0.0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Fiscal Year Ending
54